Michigan Senate Primary: Black Voters Could Decide Haley Stevens vs. Abdul El-Sayed

Black voters are once again emerging as a decisive force in Michigan politics as Democrats head toward the Aug. 4 Senate primary, with many appearing to favor establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens over progressive challenger Abdul El-Sayed.

The closely watched contest has taken on added significance after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow withdrew from the race, leaving Stevens and El-Sayed in a two-way battle for the Democratic nomination. The winner will face Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers in November in a race that both parties view as critical to determining control of the U.S. Senate.

Stevens, a four-term congresswoman representing Oakland County, has positioned herself as a pragmatic Democrat, while El-Sayed, the former Wayne County health director, has run with support from progressive leaders including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Historical Voting Patterns Favor Moderates

Michigan’s Democratic primaries have long shown Black voters backing more moderate candidates in competitive races.

During the 2016 presidential primary, Hillary Clinton defeated Bernie Sanders among Black voters by roughly 40 percentage points, according to exit polls. Four years later, Joe Biden posted a similarly commanding advantage over Sanders, helping secure the nomination. Those results have become an important point of comparison as El-Sayed attempts to build support across the state’s Democratic coalition.

With Black voters making up roughly one-fifth of Michigan’s Democratic primary electorate, both campaigns have intensified their outreach efforts in the final stretch before voting.

Campaign Ads Become Flashpoint

The race has also become one of the country’s most expensive Democratic primaries, with more than $46 million spent or reserved for television advertising by early July.

At a campaign cookout in Pontiac, voter Larry Nix questioned El-Sayed about advertisements highlighting the candidate’s past criticism of Michelle Obama’s anti-obesity initiative. El-Sayed rejected the characterization, saying the ads misrepresented his previous comments and arguing that outside groups, including spending linked to AIPAC, were behind the campaign against him.

The exchange underscored how outside advertising has become a major issue in the closing days of the primary.

Community Connections Shape Voter Decisions

For many voters, ideology is only one part of the decision.

Pontiac resident Demetria Card said Stevens better represents everyday Michigan voters, while her daughter, Natasha Bartley, pointed to the congresswoman’s visibility in local communities as a key reason for her support.

Stevens has strengthened her standing with endorsements from retiring Sen. Gary Peters and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, reinforcing her position as the establishment favorite. El-Sayed, meanwhile, has continued to rely on grassroots organizing and campaign appearances with Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez to energize progressive voters.

November Stakes Loom Large

The Democratic primary has drawn national attention because Michigan is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate battlegrounds in the country.

Whoever wins on Aug. 4 will advance to face Mike Rogers in November, with the outcome likely to play an important role in determining which party controls the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. As Election Day approaches, the preferences of Black voters could once again prove decisive in shaping both Michigan’s Democratic nominee and the broader balance of power in Washington.